Circle (CRCL) Downgraded to Sell Amid Interest Rate and Competitive Pressures

Wolfe Research delivered a blunt assessment of Circle (CRCL), slapping a 'Sell' rating on the stock with a $60 price target—a 30% downside from its current $78 level. The crypto-focused firm has plunged over 400% from its June 2025 peak of $263, with the latest downgrade citing interest rate sensitivity and mounting competition as critical vulnerabilities.

Analyst Darrin Peller acknowledged Circle’s regulatory-compliant platform and institutional traction but warned that its heavy reliance on interest income (96% of projected $2.75B 2025 revenue) makes it acutely exposed to Fed policy shifts. The bearish call follows Circle’s revised expense guidance last quarter, which overshadowed an earnings beat and triggered a 40% monthly decline.

Market observers note the downgrade reflects broader crypto sector strains, with USDC issuer Circle caught between regulatory scrutiny and shrinking margins. As traders brace for another potential Fed rate cut in December, CRCL’s fate appears tethered to macroeconomic tides rather than blockchain adoption metrics.